Andrew Mobbs (mobbsy) wrote,
Andrew Mobbs

The python narging I mentioned earlier came out of a quick diversion to monte-carlo the Shut The Box pub game. The varient I was testing is:

  • Start with numbers 1 through 9 "up".
  • Roll two 6-sided dice
  • Put down one or two numbers that exactly total the sum of the dice roll.
  • Repeat until either you cannot exactly total the roll (a lose), or you've put down all the numbers (a win).

Assuming I've fixed all the bugs, given perfect play (i.e. effective foreknowledge of all throws), you have somewhere around an 8.8% chance of winning.

Update: Hm... my results disagree with those on a random web site.
There's also an analysis here of a varient where you get to choose to roll one die if the total is 6 or less. The numbers given on those two sites for that varient agree, which leads me to suspect my result for the varient above may be wrong.

I haven't yet tried programming various strategies that rather than evaluating the whole tree. I'd guess something like "try to put down the numbers that aren't near 7" might be a good one to try. Rules on the web suggest that you can play it by attempting to minimise your score, rather than just going for an outright win, which might suggest a different strategy.

  • (no subject)

    Last week I poured the cremated remains of my father into a river. From there, that material will flow through the town he lived in, into the sea,…

  • Moving house!

    We're moving house soon… details to follow in a less public post, or email me. However, we're getting rid of some bits and pieces of…

  • (no subject)

    Yesterday, I made sausages. This was sufficiently exciting to cause me to actually write something on LJ for once. One of our wedding gifts was a…

  • Post a new comment


    default userpic

    Your IP address will be recorded 

    When you submit the form an invisible reCAPTCHA check will be performed.
    You must follow the Privacy Policy and Google Terms of use.